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Eurozone growth unexpectedly strong in second quarter at 2.7 pct (AFP)

31.10.2006 13:08 Business

BRUSSELS (AFP) - The eurozone's strong economic growth is set to cool in the coming quarters after hitting a five-year record in the second quarter, official EU data show.

In a second estimate, the European Union's Eurostat data agency said Wednesday that annual growth in the 12-nation economy accelerated to 2.7 percent in the second quarter from 2.2 percent in the previous three months.

The rate, which was revised up from an earlier estimate of 2.6 percent, marked the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2001, during the heady days of the high-tech boom.

On a quarterly basis, the bloc's economy expanded 0.9 percent in the second quarter after growth of 0.8 percent in the first quarter, Eurostat said, sticking with a previous estimate.

However, the second quarter is likely to mark the peak of the current economic cycle for the eurozone, with the European Commission's growth projections showing a slowing trend ahead.

The EU's executive arm forecast Wednesday that eurozone quarterly growth would cool to 0.4-0.8 percent in third quarter, 0.2-0.7 percent in fourth quarter and 0.0-0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2007.

The commission's outlook for the eurozone is more pessimistic than in August when it forecast growth of 0.5-0.9 percent in the third quarter, 0.4-0.9 percent in the fourth quarter and 0.2-0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2007.

Although EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said Tuesday in a speech that "current momentum in favour of strong growth could well be maintained for the next two quarters", he also acknowledged that "further ahead downside risks become more prominent."

In particular, he warned: "The outlook for the external environment is worsening somewhat due to the expected slowdown in the US."

However, as Global Insight economist Howard Archer points out, there are many other risks facing the eurozone economy in the months ahead.

"Slowing global growth, tighter fiscal policy in several countries, particularly January's VAT (value added tax) hike in Germany, and higher interest rates threaten to exact an increasing toll on eurozone growth going forward," he said.

"Furthermore, we expect the euro to move higher against the dollar over the coming months, while oil prices are likely to remain relatively elevated," Archer added.

Despite the long list of risks, Almunia remains optimistic and said "the macro-economic situation and outlook in Europe is more favourable than it has been for many years."

The commission currently forecasts that eurozone growth for the whole of 2006 will reach 2.5 percent, which would be the bloc's best performance since 2000.

The current boom has so far been underpinned by solid domestic demand, fuelled by firm business investment and improving household consumption although firm global growth have also benefitted exports.

Growth has been even stronger in the 25-nation EU than the eurozone.

Eurostat said that the EU saw annual economic growth speed up to 2.9 percent in the second quarter after 2.4 percent in the first three months of the year, which was better that a previous estimate of 2.8 percent for the second quarter.

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